Overeager Bears Point to a Looming Upturn

Do you know that Visa (V - commentary - Trade Now) dropped two bucks instantly last night -- instantly? The moment its headlines came out. That's too negative. That's the sign that people have now gotten overly dark about things.

That's a sign that the selloff's almost over.

When you see people just be willing to sell and bet that they can cover lower you know that people are thinking, "This is the easiest trade in the world."

Now, we know that the economy's not picking up the way we like, so the jobs aren't coming back, which then translates into the banks -- not the industrials -- but the banks dropping. We know that the Procter (PG - commentary - Trade Now) trade is back -- despite the stronger dollar.

But I always like to look for the bears' overreach.

The Visa is the first time I have seen when it didn't pay after hours to short. (I distinguish Amazon (AMZN - commentary - Trade Now) from this because people were short ahead of the quarter based on fears about Wal-Mart (WMT - commentary - Trade Now) giving things away. They didn't realize that Amazon is a fulfillment margin trade. )

This is a good sign for bulls, but it is still early. Remember, until I see Google (GOOG - commentary - Trade Now), Apple (AAPL - commentary - Trade Now), JPMorgan (JPM - commentary - Trade Now) and Goldman Sachs (GS - commentary - Trade Now) turn around, the market won't turn around.

Watch those today, though. It is a crucial mark-up day, and they are all vulnerable to be marked up by the late afternoon.

Random musings: Revenue recognition issues equals sell, so I can't get behind Apollo (APOL - commentary - Trade Now) here, but the whole group should not be taken out and shot.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Visa, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs.

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